Buy, Sell or Hold: Mine Profits From Bhp Billiton

By Horacio Marquez
Contributing Editor
Money Morning

With BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE ADR: BHP), it's a case of the strong getting stronger and possibly even running away from the pack.

Back in 2001, BHP Ltd. and Billiton PLC merged to form BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's
leading diversified resources group. And it never looked back.

Now, the lowest-cost natural-resources producer with the broadest portfolio of offerings, BHP superbly positioned itself to weather the current global downturn. Indeed, back in June the company reported its seventh-consecutive year of record profits. Financially, the company is well positioned to maintain its high level of investment in its business.

And because the Melbourne, Australia-based mining giant has so many of its operations in the Pacific region, it is perfectly positioned to continue serving two of the world's fastest-growing markets: China and India.

The bottom line: BHP is exceptionally well diversified ' not only in terms of the commodities it mines and sells, but also in terms of the markets it serves. This has allowed it to minimize the regulatory, climatic and geological risks it faces.

And that diversification is paying off. As millions of people emerge from poverty in Asia and other markets from around the world ' led by the creation of a massive middle class in China and fueled by global synchronic growth ' the demand for commodities will soar in the years to come. And so will commodity prices.

China alone has expanded the worldwide demand for steel by an amount that equaled the combined production of Canada and Mexico. Over the past year ' from copper to coking coal to crude oil ' we saw similarly impressive growth statistics around the world, an uptick that is putting pressure on the capacity of the commodity producers around the world. During that time, BHP's profits grew spectacularly, but it's also important to note that the company grew in a very balanced and conservative manner.

At a time that many international banks came close to collapsing and needing recapitalizations, BHP posted a net operating cash flow of  'only' $18 billion. This strong cash flow, combined with a very low net debt leverage of only 22% at the end of June, has allowed the company to maintain its share buyback program and increased value for investors. It's also allowed for a generous increase in BHP's dividend, which at Monday's closing price of $40.40, yields an appetizing 4.06% and that could easily get to the 5%-6% area soon.

The company also has dropped its bid for

BHP's decision to end its takeover of Aussie mining rival Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE ADR: RTP) was also a good one.  Rio Tinto's acquisition of Alcan Inc. put Rio in a leveraged position, which increased that company's credit and business risks. Besides, in a time of low liquidity and scarce financing for deals, the divestments of assets that a merged BHP-RTP would have to complete to receive the needed financing would have so devalued the deal that it almost wouldn't have been worth doing.

What About the Global Recession?

The recession has greatly impacted commodity prices. Oil has dropped from its record level of more than $147 a barrel in July, to less than $40 a barrel. Analysts are forecasting a near 60% drop in the price of coking coal for next year, as well as price declines of 20% to 30% for aluminum, copper and nickel.

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About the Author:

Horacio R. Marquez is Emerging Market Specialist and Editor of the Money Map Report, and the Money Map VIP Trader. A native of Argentina, Marquez has more than 20 years' experience as an investment banker, and is a recognized expert on both banking and investing strategies, as well as on the emerging markets of Latin America. He is also recognized as one of the investment industry's most-talented research analysts.